Here is my Oscar analysis for the Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Film, and Best Original Screenplay categories.
Best Picture
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire
I've seen all 5 of these movies. There are two movies nominated here that have no business being nominated; "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "The Reader". Benjamin Button just might be one of the most overrated movies of all time. If you were able to get through the first 30-40minutes of this movie without almost falling asleep then you deserve a prize. The only redeeming quality to this movie was Cate Blanchett and even she could not save this movie. If I as a 23-year old I could barely stay awake to see this movie then how do we expect those old Academy folks to not nod off on their rocking chairs? This movie was decent on the technical side, but as far as a total movie package this was a total snorefest.
On to the "The Reader"...I'm usually one for historical movies, but the first third of this movie was a porno and I didn't find the acting as a whole that great either. I don't know how else to describe this movie, but it just doesn't have Oscar calibur written on it. Harvey Weinstein definitely had to move his fanny to get this crap nominated.
I really enjoyed "Frost/Nixon" because of the historical significance, but it just doesn't have the total package as far as what I expect a "Best Picture" movie to have to win. Unless your into politics you probably wont enjoy it that much, and that's probably why it wont win.
"Milk" was a very good movie and very well put together. It's definitely in my top 10 of 2008. The
problem with this movie is that it's an activist film, and that will ultimately be it's downfall. If "Brokeback Mountain" didn't win then this has no chance to win. I'll be shocked if it wins, but I wont be mad if it does either because it's deserving.
"Slumdog Millionaire" is the favorite to win and it should be. I would say this movie is my 2nd favorite movie of the decade behind "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King." This movie is just spectacular because it has EVERYTHING. It has drama, it has a love story, it has tragedy, and the most appealing part of this movie is the underdog/rags to riches aspect of it. Not only that, but the score is great, the cinematography is great, the film editing is great, and the directing is great. ALL those things make this movie the total package. This movie should win the Oscar, and the only movie it could lose to without uproar would be "Milk".
My pick: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor
- Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
- Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"
- Sean Penn "Milk"
- Brad Pitt "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
- Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
I've seen all 5 of these movies. It would be an absolute disgrace and insult to the acting industry if Brad Pitt wins. It is beyond comprehension how Pitt was able to secure this nomination, and should be win it will be one of the biggest heists in Oscar history. Richard Jenkins was good in the "The Visitor", but I think his performance was borderline as far as entering Oscar territory. I highly recommend "The Visitor" though. Frank Langella was very good as Richard Nixon even though he didn't look like him that much, but his voice and mannerisms were right on point. The Oscar nomination is well deserved, but I don't think he will win. Sean Penn was absolutely brilliant in "Milk." During the movie you forget you're even watching Sean Penn because he's completely immersed in his character as Harvey Milk. Mickey Rourke was great in the "The Wrestler", but the only knock on him that would cost him the Oscar is that he's acting himself.
I've been going back and forth on this category all week, but I'm pretty this one is going to Mickey Rourke. I think Rourke has the slight edge because the Academy tends to favor nominees who haven't won before. I do think Penn's performance was better and deserves it over Rourke, but at the end of the day I see Rourke getting the Oscar because of the great story of his career comeback.
My pick: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"Best Actress- Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
- Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
- Melissa Leo "Frozen River"
- Meryl Streep "Doubt"
- Kate Winslet "The Reader"
I've seen all 5 of these movies. This is the category where I break from the hype. I thought Anne Hathaway was pretty good, but borderline as far as Oscar territory is concerned. Her performance was similar to Ellen Page last year in "Juno". Good, but not good enough to win. I thought Angelina Jolie was pretty good, and if she hadn't won an Oscar before I would say she would be a top contender to win. There is a little element of phoniness to her acting that is sometimes evident. I thought Melissa Leo was absolutely brilliant in "Frozen River". She carried the whole movie on her shoulders and her character was very likeable. I thought Meryl Streep was good, but not great in "Doubt". Don't get me wrong Meryl Streep is a great actress, but to me her performance did not rise to that next level where Daniel-Day Lewis was last year with "There Will Be Blood." As far as Kate Winslet goes I am stunned that she is getting all this praise for her performance in "The Reader". She was fairly ordinary to me and when her character gets older in the movie her hair turns grey but the acting stays the same as when she was young.
This is the category that is very hard to predict. I did not think any one performance was head and shoulders above the rest. I don't buy into the Meryl Streep vs Kate Winslet battle because I don't think either deserve the Oscar this year. I know I am in the extreme minority, but I am also in
good company with Roger Ebert who believe that Melissa Leo deserves the Oscar. The safe pick is Kate Winslet, but I'm gonna be naive and assume the Academy voters watched "Frozen River." Based on all the performances I believe Melissa Leo was the best and she carried the movie better than the rest of the nominees. Melissa Leo for the upset.
My pick: Melissa Leo "Frozen River"Best Supporting Actor- Josh Brolin "Milk"
- Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
- Philip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
- Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
- Michael Shannon "Revolutionary Road"
The only movie I haven't seen here yet is "Revolutionary Road." Let's be honest we know who's gonna win this, but I'm gonna break it down anyway. Josh Brolin in "Milk" was good, but honestly he should have been nominated for his performance as President George W. Bush in "W.". I do think his performance in "Milk" is very borderline Oscar material, but I guess this is a consolation for not getting the "W." nomination. Robert Downey Jr. was absolutely great in "Tropic Thunder", and if there is a shred of hope for an upset it is him. Philip Seymour Hoffman was kind of ordinary, and I'm a little puzzled why he was nominated. I don't think his performance was Oscar materiall, but I guess that's name recognition doing it's trick. I can't speak for Michael Shannon because I haven't seen it yet (although I might by Sunday). Heath Ledger was absolutely brilliant in "The Dark Knight". He completely immersed himself into the character of the joker, and he totally deserves the Oscar dead or alive.
My pick: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"Best Supporting Actress- Amy Adams "Doubt"
- Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
- Viola Davis "Doubt"
- Taraji P. Henson "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
- Marisa Tomei "The Wrestler"
I've seen all 4 of these movies. This is probably the toughest category to predict. I liked Amy Adams in "Doubt", but I thought the performance was fairly ordinary and borderline Oscar material. I didn't think Penelope Cruz was bad, but her performance was almost like watching a whining lady and was fairly borderline Oscar material. Viola Davis was only in "Doubt" for 10minutes/2 scenes, but she was great. Taraji P. Henson wasn't terrible, but I thought her acting was more phoniness than authenticity. Marisa Tomei was very good in "The Wrestler", but she probably wont win because she has already won before and is not very well liked.
This one is pretty tough, but I'm going with Viola Davis. The reason why Viola Davis deserves the Oscar is that her 2nd scene in "Doubt" with Meryl Streep walking through the park is probably one of the best scenes of 2008. Not only that, but that scene in the park added so much to "Doubt" that if it was taken away it would caused the movie to lose a lot of steam.
My pick: Viola Davis "Doubt"
Best Animated Feature Film
I've only seen Kung Fu Panda and Wall-E. I can't speak for "Bolt" because I haven't seen it. I thought Kung Fu Panda was pretty good. This was a well put together movie that has a lot of replay value. I thought the animation was good and the story was good also. It had this Yoda/Splinter like character which can't be a bad thing. It had it's fair share of kid jokes, but they all came off well. For all the hoopla surrounding "Wall-E" I thought it would better. The robot animation was good, the emotions of the robot were good, and the sounds were excellent. As far as a total package I thought "Wall-E" fell short. The plot was scrappy at times and the humans element brought down the movie for me. I thought the first 30-40minutes of the movie were great, but it went downhill from there. Most people will pick "Wall-E", but Kung Fu Panda swept the Annie awards(Animation awards), and given the fact that I myself see Kung Fu Panda as a better overall movie I am going with Kung Fu Panda.
My pick: Kung Fu PandaBest Original Screenplay- "Frozen River" Courtney Hunt
- "Happy Go-Lucky" Michael Leigh
- "In Bruges" Martin McDonagh
- "Milk" Dustin Lance Black
- "Wall-E" Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon
Story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter
I've seen all 5 of these movies. For me this is a very tough category to predict even though "Milk" is the favorite because it's a Best Picture nominee. I thought "Frozen River" was a very well written movie. The plot was flawless, and the dialogue was great. I enjoyed "Happy Go-Lucky" as a movie, but I thought the plot was a little sketchy. It had great dialogue. "In Bruges" was a great movie, and the plot was good and the dialogue was good. I thought "Milk" was a good movie, but I didn't think the strength of the movie was in the dialogue. I can't give it to "Wall-E" because there was very little dialogue in the movie, and I thought the plot itself was a little sketchy at times.
Everyone will say "Milk" will win because it's nominated for Best Picture, but I disagree. "In Bruges" is probably the 2nd best safe pick in this category because it had a good plot, good dialogue, and is not represented anywhere else in the Oscars. I will again be in the extreme minority and pick "Frozen River" because I believe it had the purest dialogue and an absolutely completely flawless plot.
My pick: "Frozen River" Courtney HuntI will pick the rest of the categories on Saturday night!
Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any sheckles lost by any readers. Trust at your own risk :)