Oscars 2009 Picks

• Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Actor: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
• Best Actress: Melissa Leo "Frozen River"
• Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
• Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis "Doubt"
• Best Director: Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
• Best Original Screenplay: Courtney Hunt "Frozen River"
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"
• Best Animated Feature: Kung Fu Panda
• Best Animated Short: Presto
• Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
• Best Art Direction: Changeling
• Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Costume Design: The Dutchess
• Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
• Best Documentary Short: The Witness-From the Balcony of Room 306
• Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Live Action Short: Spielzeugland(Toyland)
• Best Make-Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman "Slumdog Millionaire"
• Best Original Song: "Jai Ho", A.R. Rahman and Gulzar "Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Sound Editing: Wall-E
• Best Sound Mixing: Wall-E
• Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

DISCLAIMER: I am not responsible for any sheckles lost! :)

My Oscar Analysis/Picks

Here is my Oscar analysis for the Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Film, and Best Original Screenplay categories.

Best Picture

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Frost/Nixon
  
• Milk
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire
  

I've seen all 5 of these movies. There are two movies nominated here that have no business being nominated; "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "The Reader". Benjamin Button just might be one of the most overrated movies of all time. If you were able to get through the first 30-40minutes of this movie without almost falling asleep then you deserve a prize. The only redeeming quality to this movie was Cate Blanchett and even she could not save this movie. If I as a 23-year old I could barely stay awake to see this movie then how do we expect those old Academy folks to not nod off on their rocking chairs? This movie was decent on the technical side, but as far as a total movie package this was a total snorefest.

On to the "The Reader"...I'm usually one for historical movies, but the first third of this movie was a porno and I didn't find the acting as a whole that great either. I don't know how else to describe this movie, but it just doesn't have Oscar calibur written on it. Harvey Weinstein definitely had to move his fanny to get this crap nominated.

I really enjoyed "Frost/Nixon" because of the historical significance, but it just doesn't have the total package as far as what I expect a "Best Picture" movie to have to win. Unless your into politics you probably wont enjoy it that much, and that's probably why it wont win.

"Milk" was a very good movie and very well put together. It's definitely in my top 10 of 2008. The problem with this movie is that it's an activist film, and that will ultimately be it's downfall. If "Brokeback Mountain" didn't win then this has no chance to win. I'll be shocked if it wins, but I wont be mad if it does either because it's deserving.

"Slumdog Millionaire" is the favorite to win and it should be. I would say this movie is my 2nd favorite movie of the decade behind "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King." This movie is just spectacular because it has EVERYTHING. It has drama, it has a love story, it has tragedy, and the most appealing part of this movie is the underdog/rags to riches aspect of it. Not only that, but the score is great, the cinematography is great, the film editing is great, and the directing is great. ALL those things make this movie the total package. This movie should win the Oscar, and the only movie it could lose to without uproar would be "Milk".

My pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor

• Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
• Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"
• Sean Penn "Milk"
• Brad Pitt "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
• Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

I've seen all 5 of these movies. It would be an absolute disgrace and insult to the acting industry if Brad Pitt wins. It is beyond comprehension how Pitt was able to secure this nomination, and should be win it will be one of the biggest heists in Oscar history. Richard Jenkins was good in the "The Visitor", but I think his performance was borderline as far as entering Oscar territory. I highly recommend "The Visitor" though. Frank Langella was very good as Richard Nixon even though he didn't look like him that much, but his voice and mannerisms were right on point. The Oscar nomination is well deserved, but I don't think he will win. Sean Penn was absolutely brilliant in "Milk." During the movie you forget you're even watching Sean Penn because he's completely immersed in his character as Harvey Milk. Mickey Rourke was great in the "The Wrestler", but the only knock on him that would cost him the Oscar is that he's acting himself.

I've been going back and forth on this category all week, but I'm pretty this one is going to Mickey Rourke. I think Rourke has the slight edge because the Academy tends to favor nominees who haven't won before. I do think Penn's performance was better and deserves it over Rourke, but at the end of the day I see Rourke getting the Oscar because of the great story of his career comeback.

My pick: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"


Best Actress

• Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
• Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
• Melissa Leo "Frozen River"
• Meryl Streep "Doubt"
• Kate Winslet "The Reader"

I've seen all 5 of these movies. This is the category where I break from the hype. I thought Anne Hathaway was pretty good, but borderline as far as Oscar territory is concerned. Her performance was similar to Ellen Page last year in "Juno". Good, but not good enough to win. I thought Angelina Jolie was pretty good, and if she hadn't won an Oscar before I would say she would be a top contender to win. There is a little element of phoniness to her acting that is sometimes evident. I thought Melissa Leo was absolutely brilliant in "Frozen River". She carried the whole movie on her shoulders and her character was very likeable. I thought Meryl Streep was good, but not great in "Doubt". Don't get me wrong Meryl Streep is a great actress, but to me her performance did not rise to that next level where Daniel-Day Lewis was last year with "There Will Be Blood." As far as Kate Winslet goes I am stunned that she is getting all this praise for her performance in "The Reader". She was fairly ordinary to me and when her character gets older in the movie her hair turns grey but the acting stays the same as when she was young.

This is the category that is very hard to predict. I did not think any one performance was head and shoulders above the rest. I don't buy into the Meryl Streep vs Kate Winslet battle because I don't think either deserve the Oscar this year. I know I am in the extreme minority, but I am also in good company with Roger Ebert who believe that Melissa Leo deserves the Oscar. The safe pick is Kate Winslet, but I'm gonna be naive and assume the Academy voters watched "Frozen River." Based on all the performances I believe Melissa Leo was the best and she carried the movie better than the rest of the nominees. Melissa Leo for the upset.

My pick: Melissa Leo "Frozen River"


Best Supporting Actor

• Josh Brolin "Milk"
• Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
• Philip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
• Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
• Michael Shannon "Revolutionary Road"

The only movie I haven't seen here yet is "Revolutionary Road." Let's be honest we know who's gonna win this, but I'm gonna break it down anyway. Josh Brolin in "Milk" was good, but honestly he should have been nominated for his performance as President George W. Bush in "W.". I do think his performance in "Milk" is very borderline Oscar material, but I guess this is a consolation for not getting the "W." nomination. Robert Downey Jr. was absolutely great in "Tropic Thunder", and if there is a shred of hope for an upset it is him. Philip Seymour Hoffman was kind of ordinary, and I'm a little puzzled why he was nominated. I don't think his performance was Oscar materiall, but I guess that's name recognition doing it's trick. I can't speak for Michael Shannon because I haven't seen it yet (although I might by Sunday). Heath Ledger was absolutely brilliant in "The Dark Knight". He completely immersed himself into the character of the joker, and he totally deserves the Oscar dead or alive.

My pick: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"


Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams "Doubt"
• Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
• Viola Davis "Doubt"
• Taraji P. Henson "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
• Marisa Tomei "The Wrestler"

I've seen all 4 of these movies. This is probably the toughest category to predict. I liked Amy Adams in "Doubt", but I thought the performance was fairly ordinary and borderline Oscar material. I didn't think Penelope Cruz was bad, but her performance was almost like watching a whining lady and was fairly borderline Oscar material. Viola Davis was only in "Doubt" for 10minutes/2 scenes, but she was great. Taraji P. Henson wasn't terrible, but I thought her acting was more phoniness than authenticity. Marisa Tomei was very good in "The Wrestler", but she probably wont win because she has already won before and is not very well liked.

This one is pretty tough, but I'm going with Viola Davis. The reason why Viola Davis deserves the Oscar is that her 2nd scene in "Doubt" with Meryl Streep walking through the park is probably one of the best scenes of 2008. Not only that, but that scene in the park added so much to "Doubt" that if it was taken away it would caused the movie to lose a lot of steam.

My pick: Viola Davis "Doubt"


Best Animated Feature Film

• Bolt
  
• Kung Fu Panda
• Wall-E

I've only seen Kung Fu Panda and Wall-E. I can't speak for "Bolt" because I haven't seen it. I thought Kung Fu Panda was pretty good. This was a well put together movie that has a lot of replay value. I thought the animation was good and the story was good also. It had this Yoda/Splinter like character which can't be a bad thing. It had it's fair share of kid jokes, but they all came off well. For all the hoopla surrounding "Wall-E" I thought it would better. The robot animation was good, the emotions of the robot were good, and the sounds were excellent. As far as a total package I thought "Wall-E" fell short. The plot was scrappy at times and the humans element brought down the movie for me. I thought the first 30-40minutes of the movie were great, but it went downhill from there. Most people will pick "Wall-E", but Kung Fu Panda swept the Annie awards(Animation awards), and given the fact that I myself see Kung Fu Panda as a better overall movie I am going with Kung Fu Panda.

My pick: Kung Fu Panda


Best Original Screenplay

• "Frozen River" Courtney Hunt
• "Happy Go-Lucky" Michael Leigh
• "In Bruges" Martin McDonagh
• "Milk" Dustin Lance Black
• "Wall-E" Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon
  Story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

I've seen all 5 of these movies. For me this is a very tough category to predict even though "Milk" is the favorite because it's a Best Picture nominee. I thought "Frozen River" was a very well written movie. The plot was flawless, and the dialogue was great. I enjoyed "Happy Go-Lucky" as a movie, but I thought the plot was a little sketchy. It had great dialogue. "In Bruges" was a great movie, and the plot was good and the dialogue was good. I thought "Milk" was a good movie, but I didn't think the strength of the movie was in the dialogue. I can't give it to "Wall-E" because there was very little dialogue in the movie, and I thought the plot itself was a little sketchy at times.

Everyone will say "Milk" will win because it's nominated for Best Picture, but I disagree. "In Bruges" is probably the 2nd best safe pick in this category because it had a good plot, good dialogue, and is not represented anywhere else in the Oscars. I will again be in the extreme minority and pick "Frozen River" because I believe it had the purest dialogue and an absolutely completely flawless plot.

My pick: "Frozen River" Courtney Hunt

I will pick the rest of the categories on Saturday night!


Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any sheckles lost by any readers. Trust at your own risk :)

My Inauguration and Obama Presidency Thoughts

Even as someone who didn't vote for Barack Obama this inauguration ceremony was a must watch for obvious reasons. It only happens every 4/8 years, and most of all Barack Obama is the first African-American President in U.S. History. But I have to admit the reason why I enjoyed this ceremony most was not because of President Barack Obama, but because of George W. Bush.

Bush

To me Bush leaving office was more significant than Obama becoming President primarily because I believe (and others also) that he posed the most danger to the world. But of course there was a bittersweetness to that. I'm still not that happy that Bush was able to leave office in the fashion that he did. He was able to valiantly be escorted to a helicopter by Barack and Michelle Obama when he really should have been impeached and removed from office a whole lot sooner.

Regardless of how Bush left the presidency it meant the era of the worst President in U.S. history was over... which was really 1/3 of my life. This may not bear much significance to the older generations, but for people in my generation this is big. This was the era that introduced to me the art of protesting. While I'm proud that my courage to protest grew on me during the last 8 years it was done under circumstances that should have never happened. If there was anything mildly positive about Bush's presidency that I can think of it was that. As I was watching the inauguration ceremony I heard commentators talk about how they believe George W. Bush's presidency will be viewed in a more positive light in the future like other former presidents, but I honestly don't think so. Because of all the times Bush has gotten away with crimes watching him fly away in the helicopter was a "see it to believe it" moment for me.

President Obama

Watching President Obama get inaugurated was a nice thing to see because of the historical nature surrounding it with him being the first African-American President in U.S. history, but I had mixed feelings about the whole day and the coverage. I thought it was a very well done ceremony. The camera shot over the National Mall was great to see the millions of people there for such a historical moment. I didn't think President Obama's speech was as good as some of his previous speeches but I liked his "New Era of Responsibility" message when he was said:

What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.

This to me was the most significant message in his speech. I know millions of people listened to the speech, but I am not convinced that many people will follow through on that. We'll have to see...

Where I had problems with the ceremony was the overall tone of the coverage of the ceremony as well as crowd opinion. Not to diminish such a historical moment, but I think I was able to figure out that President Obama was the first African-American president after the 1,635,565th time of it being mentioned. Furthermore, based on crowd reaction interviews it confirmed to me what I suspected all along that voting for the first African-American President was more of a determining factor for their vote than the issues which I can't support at all. People were saying things like "I couldn't pass up the opportunity to vote for the first African-American president."I'm a firm believer that votes should never be based on race, gender, religion, or ethnicity whether you are for or against. It's just not right. It should be issues first and then if that candidate happens to be the first African-American President then great. Not the other way around. Many people will say that Obama being African-American was more of a negative than a beneficiary during the election, but I believe the latter.

The coverage itself was very over the top particularly during the limo ride down Pennsylvania Avenue when Obama kept going in and out. "WHEN IS PRESIDENT OBAMA GOING TO GET OUT OF THE LIMO?!"...Hold on a second I have to turn down the volume on my T.V. Keith Olbermann just had another O-gasm... A little much. And then of course the nonstop news coverage of the Presidential balls. It's good to know that the world stopped for President Obama.

I guess to sum up everything in a nutshell I thought race was played up way too much to the point where it was sickening.

As I said in my previous posting I don't regret not voting for President Obama, but I believe those who didn't vote for him should give Obama a chance to prove himself. That being said, he's already done a few things that I don't like; appointing Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff and Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. Rahm Emanuel makes my skin crawl, but appointing Hillary as Secretary of State is the most puzzling asinine decision Obama has made so far. Remember Obamamaniacs, any diplomatic screw up by Hillary is on Obama's watch. Plus after all the "one President at a time" excuses by now President Obama I'm still waiting for his forceful stance on the Israel/Palestine conflict. **crickets**

President Obama has done some good things so far though like ending torture and closing Guantanamo Bay. I have to give him credit for that.

In conclusion I will say that I'm not euphoric about Obama being President, but I'm glad it's not McCain. After watching the inauguration ceremony I'm just not sure that I believe many Obama supporters will be fair and objective about his Presidency. Will they criticize him when he screws up? I'm not sure, but what I can say is that I expect some 'buyers remorse'. For those that expect President Obama to govern from the far left you will very disappointed. For those supporters that knew he was a moderate (and in my opinion on the conservative side) you voted for him for the right reasons and you will probably see what you expected. It's really hard to detect what Obama supporters expect out of President Obama when they expect non-substantive things like "Hope" and "Change", but I guess that question will be answered in 4 years.

That's all I have to say about this subject right now. I hope President Obama proves me wrong, but so far he hasn't done anything that I didn't expect to happen.

Dre

Superbowl XLIII Prediction

After 17 weeks of continuous football picks w/ spread I ended up batting .515 (132/256).

Let's see how I did with my pre-season playoff predictions...

NFC EAST - COWBOYS
NFC NORTH - LIONS
NFC SOUTH - SAINTS
NFC WEST - SEAHAWKS
WILDCARD - GIANTS, EAGLES

AFC EAST - PATRIOTS
AFC NORTH - BROWNS
AFC SOUTH - COLTS
AFC WEST - CHARGERS
WILDCARD - STEELERS, JAGUARS

Superbowl Prediction
COWBOYS vs BROWNS

Superbowl Winner: COWBOYS

As you can you see I did pretty bad in my pre-season playoff predictions. Some I got half right, but the wrong slot. I thought the Browns were going to be a top contender with the acquisitions they made in the offseason with Derek Anderson at QB. They fell flat....The Cowboys fell flat also. (And boy was I wrong picking the Lions to win the NFC North)
------------------------------------

Rather than picking the playoff games week to week I'm just going to make this a little harder and give my Superbowl pick with the teams in the playoffs....

NFC - As much as it pains me to say this it seems that Philly teams are getting a lot of breaks this year. The Eagles are now playing solid football and seems like all the "Get rid of Andy Reid/McNabb" talk has gone away. The Eagles will soar all the way to the Superbowl and in the process knock off the New York Giants. Giants fans will realize the hard way that Domenik Hixon is no Plaxico Burress on the football field.

AFC - The AFC seems to be much more competitive, but I see the Baltimore Ravens as the dark horse this year. The Ravens defense is great, and Ed Reed is having a great year along with rookie QB Joe Flacco. All year long I have told myself "The Steelers are overrated", but for some reason they just kept winning games. I see the Baltimore Ravens going through Pittsburgh and edging out a "Big Ben Concussioned" Pittsburgh Steeler team in a tough defensive battle to make it to the Superbowl.

Superbowl - So there I have the stage set for an Eagles/Ravens Superbowl. As many New York Giants fans will remember there was a point when they wanted to run coach Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning out of town...until they turned it around. I believe we will see a similar situation with the Eagles. Most of the time it's "defense wins championships", but I believe this time it will be Veteran vs Rookie QB. McNabb has been to the Superbowl before, but Flacco hasn't. I see Flacco wilting under pressure and Brian Westbrook running through the Ravens defense like the New York Giants did in the regular season. In the end McNabb will remember that Superbowls don't end in a tie and play the game of his life sending the Eagles to a Superbowl victory.

Superbowl XLIII Champions: Philadelphia Eagles

NFL 2008 Week 17 Picks

It's been a very wild NFL season with many twists and turns! Down to the final Week....

My picks have been decent for most the season. I need 6 picks right to clinch a .500 record.

Favorite vs Underdog bold=Home team
My pick

Falcons vs Rams 14.5
RAMS
Patriots vs Bills 6.5
PATRIOTS
Bengals vs Chiefs 3.0
BENGALS
Packers vs Lions 9.5
PACKERS
Titans vs Colts 3.0
TITANS
Vikings vs Giants 6.5
GIANTS
Panthers vs Saints 3.0
PANTHERS
Steelers vs Browns 10.5
STEELERS
Buccaneers vs Raiders 13.0
BUCCANEERS
Texans vs Bears 2.5
TEXANS
Jets vs Dolphins 3.0
DOLPHINS
Eagles vs Cowboys 1.5
COWBOYS
Cardinals vs Seahawks 6.0
CARDINALS
49ers vs Redskins 3.0
REDSKINS
Ravens vs Jaguars 12.5
RAVENS
Chargers vs Broncos 8.0
BRONCOS

10/16

CORRECT WRONG PUSH


Past Results
Week 1: 8/16
Week 2: 7/14
Week 3: 5/16
Week 4: 4/13
Week 5: 8/14
Week 6: 9/14
Week 7: 6/14
Week 8: 6/14
Week 9: 6/14
Week 10: 8/14
Week 11: 11/16
Week 12: 10/16
Week 13: 9/16
Week 14: 10/16
Week 15: 7/16
Week 16: 8/16